Election Day!

It is hard to believe a full year has passed since the McCain-Obama showdown. Here we are on the first Tuesday of November and there is a handful of interesting races taking place today. Of course it doesn't have a micro-fraction of the drama or expectation or sense of history this day had last year but if you are interested in politics there is some things to look at. Here are some quick thoughts on a few of the more visible races:

Virginia Gov
It looks all but certain that Creigh Deeds will be slaughtered by Republican Bob McDonnell. This is a race some national conservative voices will point to as proof the White House is losing the trust of the American people but it will probably be an aberration. Virginia is quirky and weird and does not allow consecutive terms in the Governor's mansion so each race is much more a self-containing occurrence than in other states. It really is Democratic candidate versus Republican and Deeds does not seem to have connected with voters. There are plenty of numbers to suggest Virginia is a state turning (a light shade of) blue but it is not that simple. Yes Obama was the first Democrat to carry the state since the 1960s and it is represented in the US Senate by two Democrats. But those victories owed much to conditions specific to that election. Both Jim Webb and Mark Warner have long and sturdy connections to the people of the state of Virginia and made the race more about them about being a Democrat. Obama benefited from the most tuned-in electorate of all time in a state with a rapidly growing suburban core in the north that also happens to be mostly on the center-left. Casual voters in the DC suburbs who showed up for Obama are less likely to do the same for Deeds. And the tremendous fervor in the state's sizable African American community gave Obama's numbers an extra push. I think Deeds will lose but the loss will have minimal implications beyond who sits in the Governor's Mansion next year.


New Jersey Gov
I find this one particularly interesting because I grew up in New Jersey. If Chris Christie does not win, and that appears to be a real possibility, he will have redefined failure in modern American politics. Over the summer Christie enjoyed a double digit lead over incumbent Jon Corzine and seemed to be cruising as he hammered his rivals low approval ratings, the state's high taxes, and general discontent with the perception of corruption in the state. It is tough to say exactly what caused the race to tighten to the point where it is neck and neck on election day but I suspect it was a mix of two things. 1, Christie's naked ambition was a little too much for some voters. Every politician has a healthy dose of ambition but most do a better job of handling their public image. With his string of investigations focusing on Democrats which buzzed right around election day for most of this past decade people who follow the politics of the state so a man who simply could not wait to run for a big office. 2, Christie attacked Corzine too early. There is no way to deny he damaged the current Governor, but he gave Corzine months and months to respond. And he did just that. After absorbing the blows from the Christie campaign Corzine picked himself up and counter-attacked. Painting Christie as a Bush sycophant and not-so-subtly pointing out that he is really fat may not be the most sophisticated political strategy but Christie proved so utterly inept at defending himself that I suspect it will keep Corzine in the job for another four years. By two points or less, but I believe Corzine will win.

An interesting note: For the most part polls done by local in-state outfits give Corzine a slight edge while most national polls give Christie a small advantage. Third party candidate Chris Daggett ranges from 8% on the low end up to 15%. Personally I would be shocked to see him in double digits.

One of the possible after-effects to look for here is what it says about the viability of moderate (in message/tone) Republicans going forward. Christie knows he is running in a state that has only elected two Republicans to state-wide office in three decades and is acting accordingly. He is cuddling up to Obama in a way that may soften his rough edges with New Jerseyans but is sure to drive movement conservatives insane. TPM has a great clip of a Christie ad that tries to tie him to the president. If Christie wins it will probably blow over and be seen as a one time thing that helped him win an off-year election in a liberal state. But if he loses, there will be thunder in the right-wing echo chamber. The same way rank and file Democrats rejected "Bush/Republican lite" early in this decade Republicans will insist the only way to beat Democrats is to move as far to the right as possible. Given the national realities of the moment we live in that will only strengthen Democrats' hand.

New York 23rd Congressional District
This race is almost in Canada! It has been intriguing because of national Republicans' willingness to back the third party candidate over an establishment Republican picked by local leaders. Dede Scozzafava may be pro-choice but she wasn't a Lincoln Chafee/Jim Jeffords type. When people like Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty threw their muscle behind Hoffman it really signaled a desire to run to the right across the board instead of the "candidate to fit the district" approach.

NY-23 is similar to the New Jersey race in that it may point to a way forward for Republicans. Despite Scozzafava endorsing Democrat Bill Owens, the seat is likely to remain Republican. A Hoffman victory will allow the Glen Beck's and Rush Limbaugh's to validate their belief in the most conservative candidate is always the right one. With midterms a year away they will surely push for conservative challengers to moderate Republicans in primaries across the nation. This differs from the NJ race in that the Republican is likely to win and that will allow ramifications to flow, while if he loses they can easily blame it on the "turn-coat" Scozzafava for endorsing the Democrat.

New York City Mayor
I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Mike Bloomberg didn't win a third term today. Bill Thompson is not ready for prime time and New Yorkers are more or less happy with the job Bloomberg has done. What surprises me is the volume and tone of Bloomberg's ads. Some are vicious attacks against Thompson and blur some facts. There are other positive Bloomberg ads that focus on endorsements from people like Colin Powell and Al Gore. Living 45 minutes to an hour from the city I have been bombarded by Bloomberg ads in a race that really appears to have been won months ago. The only thing I can think of is that he wants to win in a landslide to marginalize those who oppose his scrapping of term limits to run again.

If you are a polinerd, tonight won't be the Superbowl but it will be fun.